Thursday, June 18, 2009
Jump d' Shark
What happens when you "jump the shark" and your application goes from successful to completely unsuccessful and draggy poster...ooopps!! But why does this happens? Interested to dissect that exact issue? Lets talk about it then .....
A great analogy and statistical science for me at least. Point is like - A bolt of lightening. It’s absolutely obvious when you see it, but before you see it, a successful viral campaign seems to be as much about luck as anything else. Isn't it ? Na, Na, Na. Not at all guys.....
So, what IS changing the paradigm is Twitter and social Networks ? Ummm....lets say - only (say) 1 in 100 people spread the word… so way less than 1 on 1… but if those people all have over 100 followers, then the maths is on the right track - because the infection used to be passed on on person at a time. Now the infection rate is one to many.
So, friends waddya think that disease depends on whether you are just a carrier of the disease (you heard the message) or a super- infector, like the Typhoid Mart you mention. Malcolm Gladwell talks about this in his book - “Tipping Point” - calling thise super infectors “connectors” I think.
Well, lets bang up with hard hits now to sum it up ....mathematically:
V = L.P.E
i.e. L multiplied by P multiplied by E
P = No. of initial people
L = Loop OR talking/connecting intensity of people to their friends network around
E = "Efficiency of Connection" of that network to other network of friends or people around
V = Viral Marketing online/offline
So, you send the Orkut/Facebook request to your 5 close knit friends i.e. P
P send it to their 5 friends each. Total 5 into 5 = 25. Now those 25 to another 5 each = 125
E works as speed here i.e how fast all it happens through P
Got the poking fun guys ? Lemme know for more explanation. Lastly - I heard this on Twitter, Facebook and it will be on my own upcoming Global Trading Web site www.LogicalBuys.com